Wedge pattern: falling and rising

The wedge looks like a triangle and is not one. Both lines converge, but they lean the same way, which changes the reading. The falling wedge breaks upward in 68% of cases, making it one of the least neutral patterns in the catalogue. In exchange, its ranking stays average and its rate of return to the broken line is high. This lesson gives the distinction from the triangle, the numbers, and what they impose on execution.

Wedge or triangle, the difference is the slope

Triangle or wedge: look at the slope In a symmetrical triangle, one line rises and the other falls. In a wedge, both lines lean the same way, and they converge because one leans harder. The falling wedge declines less and less and breaks upward in 68% of cases; the rising wedge, its mirror, climbs while running out of breath and reads bearish.

In a symmetrical triangle, one line rises and the other falls: they converge by heading towards each other.

In a wedge, both lines lean the same way, and they still converge because one leans harder than the other. That shared tilt is what gives the pattern its name and what carries the information.

The falling wedge has both lines falling, the top faster than the floor. The market is dropping, but dropping less and less. Bullish reading.

The rising wedge is its mirror, both lines rising, the floor faster than the top. The market climbs while running out of breath. Bearish reading.

The practical difference from a triangle sits there: a symmetrical triangle says nothing about direction, a wedge does. That is what explains the heavily unbalanced breakout split we are about to see.

The falling wedge numbers

Study by Thomas Bulkowski across more than 800 perfect trades, quoted as it stands.

Breakout split: 68% upward, therefore 32% downward. That is a clear imbalance, far stronger than the 60/40 of the symmetrical triangle. The pattern genuinely leans.

Performance rank: 31 out of 39 on an upward break, 27 out of 36 on a downward one. Better than the symmetrical triangle, and still in the lower half.

Failure rate: 26% upward, 29% downward. Average move: 38% upward, 14% downward. Price target met: 62% upward, 29% downward.

Return to the line after the break: 62% upward, 74% downward. Three downward breaks out of four come back to touch the line. That is the most constraining number on the list and it should decide your entry.

Source: thepatternsite.com, consulted in September 2026.

The falling wedge in numbers, in % Thomas Bulkowski's study of more than 800 perfect cases, in percent. Upward, 26% failure and 62% of targets reached; downward, 29% and 29%. And the return to the broken line: 62% upward, 74% downward, three downward breakouts in four. Performance rank: 31st out of 39 upward, 27th out of 36 downward.

What those numbers impose

Two conclusions follow directly, and both are operational.

One. The direction of the wedge is worth more than the wedge. With 68% of breaks upward on the falling wedge, the pattern has a default orientation. Playing a downward break on a falling wedge means taking the minority side of a pattern that already returns 29% failure and 29% of targets met on that side. It is not forbidden, but you should know it.

Two. Entering on the break is almost always shaken. 62% one way, 74% the other. Waiting for the return to the line is statistically the better entry, and it is the same conclusion as for the triangle and the cup. Three different patterns, one same execution correction.

The wedge also shares the triangle's drawing weakness: two lines to place, therefore a judgement. Two touches minimum per line, and if you have to force a point, the pattern does not exist.

Falling wedge: the direction, then the return A falling wedge breaks upward in 68% of cases, and price comes back to the broken line in 62% of cases upward, 74% downward. Entering on the return, at 2, rather than at the breakout, at 1, takes the same trade at a better price: it is the same execution fix as for the triangle and the cup.

What it gives in your own journal

The most useful measurement here is the direction you take. Tag your wedge trades according to whether you went with the majority direction of the pattern or against it. If the 68 against 32 imbalance shows up for you, you will know what to stop doing.

The second is maximum adverse excursion, for the same reason as on the triangle and the cup: it tells you whether your entry on the break systematically makes you sit through a return to the line. If so, enter on that return, you take the same trade at a better price.

Tradoshi computes that excursion on every imported trade and combines labels in the journal filter.

Frequently asked questions

Falling wedge, bullish or bearish? Bullish by default, and it is measured: 68% of breaks go upward.

What is the difference from a triangle? In a wedge both lines lean the same way. In a symmetrical triangle they lean in opposite directions.

Should you wait for the break? Yes, and above all for the return to the line, which happens in 62% to 74% of cases depending on direction.

How many touches to draw one? Two minimum per line, as for the triangle. Below that you are drawing an intention.

What about the broadening formation? It is the opposite, the lines diverge instead of converging. It is a different pattern, with its own studies, and it is markedly rarer.

Key takeaways

Both lines lean the same way, which is what separates a wedge from a triangle and what carries the information.
The falling wedge breaks upward in 68% of cases. It is the least neutral pattern in this category.
Rank 31 out of 39 and 26% failure: better than the symmetrical triangle, still in the lower half.
62% of returns to the line upward, 74% downward. Entering on the return rather than on the break is the obvious correction.
In your journal, first measure whether you take the majority direction of the pattern or the minority one.

Going further

These blog articles dig into this lesson's ideas, one subject per article.

Patterns in trading: spotting what makes you win or lose